Ce spun analistii nostri:
The election outcome creates uncertainty rather than clarity.
Result is unfavorable for sentiment and risky asset markets in the very short term. Investors are likely to seek refuge in safe-haven assets.
In an outcome many observers deemed unlikely, Republican Donald Trump has been elected president of the USA, with the latest results indicating that he won 288 electoral votes. Congress will be in Republican hands as well. Given many Republicans’ lukewarm support of Mr. Trump’s candidacy during the campaign, Mr. Trump’s influence in the Republican party may remain limited despite today’s victory. It is therefore likely that the policy agenda is going to be heavily shaped by current Republican orthodoxy, leading to policy and growth uncertainty. This is likely to mean higher volatility in the markets, which do not like policy uncertainty. Consequently, equities and credit are under pressure as investors seek refuge in safe-haven assets such as government bonds, gold, the USD, the CHF and the JPY in the immediate aftermath of this election.
Looking farther ahead, today’s victory potentially is a major blow to both domestic and global efforts to tackle climate change, with the focus shifting to the coal, natural gas and oil industries. Furthermore, much of Mr. Trump’s program centered around boosting infrastructure spending, increasing expenditure on defense and protecting domestic manufacturing. A number of industries stand to benefit from these proposals, including defense contractors, steel manufacturers and construction companies. In addition, Mr. Trump also intends to repatriate corporate cash held outside the USA and end the tax deferral of profits earned abroad. Should these proposals be implemented, cash-rich companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Google and pharmaceutical companies would benefit. In the area of fixed income, we expect Treasury yields to initially decline, driven by the degree of uncertainty and risk aversion. Financial market turmoil, if more persistent, may reduce the chances of an interest rate tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in December. As far as the USD is concerned, it is likely to come under further pressure as focus on trade friction and accusations of currency manipulation could push surplus currencies up the most. The Japanese yen, which has weakened in recent weeks on talk of a Fed rate hike, may respond particularly positively here. Looking across the US borders, the MXN is losing further ground against the USD, with the CAD likely to weaken as well as existing trade relations could be challenged.